Pakistan Elections & What Lies Ahead?
By Rizwan Ghani

POST-election Pakistan is all jubilation, and it should be for holding, participating and accepting the results of ‘unexpectedly’ peaceful elections. The ‘satisfactory’ grading of country’s elections by the International observers including comments of 150 member EU observers in which he said Pakistan’s elections can stand up to any scrutiny.

The observers spent some two months in the country. Barring few, most politicians and political parties including major opposition parties are by and large satisfied with the elections. This kind of satisfaction is in itself historic.
In the wake of voting statistics there are two possible options for the PPPP, PML(N). In these two options lie the fate of country’s democracy, institutions, foreign policy and Musharraf. It would therefore be interesting to watch the emerging developments.

After all politics is art of possible. Someone on one of the TV channels remarked Nawaz Sharif has returned as a mature leader.

After covering European and American elections I find a whiff of Western-style Nawaz’s politics. It is welcome trend for Pakistani politics but will Washington and European capitals tolerate this kind of Nawaz Sharif is a million dollar question and coming days Pakistan will know its answer. Here are the moves that Nawaz will make and it would be interesting to see the worries on foreign foreheads.

He following the footsteps of western political parties and leaders has stood for the independence of institutions in the country for strengthening of democracy.

The restoration of judges, independence of judiciary, support for the withdrawal of unlawful PEMRA Ordinance for media freedom, end of dictatorship and return of civil and constitutional guarantees have been the cornerstone of his election campaign. In these strong words lies the hope for the independence of nation’s shackled institutions but so are the interests of western world that will be at stake without a pro-western leader occupying Islamabad including Musharraf.

It is not a mere coincidence that like Justice Iftikhar and media restrictions in Pakistan, Dept. of Justice is at loggers head with Manila (DOJ Orders 6 Mil. Officers probed for Activists Disappearance, Arab News, July 10, 2007) over missing persons. Country’s Bishops and others are pushing for review of anti-terror law as more journalists and media persons lose their lives to target killings.

Similarly, human right is a persistent headache for the London and lawyers’ community in US is outraged against the legality of upcoming trials of ‘board of terrorists and their CEO’ by disputed military tribunals. They insist a civil trial and rightly so. Mainstream US press also supports their position. Pakistan’s existing legal system could have easily decided such cases and still can do it.

These complex issues bring Pakistan’s foreign policy and Islamabad’s support for terrorism under spotlight. In all probability, it should put in perspective a statement from White House looking for Pakistan’s support against terrorism. Pakistan should review its support because Bush’s below 27 ratings and 73% public demanding troop withdrawal from Iraq war show that it is Bush’s agenda and American public’s vote for Democratic Congress in 2006 elections and support for Obama’s Iraq policy are cases in point.

Pakistan’s policy on war against terrorism will be a major test for country’s PM. It would therefore be interesting to see the new PM walk the walk. After explaining external pressure and shedding light on Sharif’s advanced western style of democratic politics that his critics find ‘acquired’, impractical and in words of Musharraf unsuited for country’s psyche could soon be replaced by local politics.

The unashamed western support for Kibaki — who supports Bush’s illegal war on terrorism- despite losing the election and post election 1100 plus death and displacement of some 300,000 Kenyans it is not difficult to envisage level of their meanness when it comes to respecting norms of democracy, human rights and innocent lives against their own national interests.

It is therefore, hoped that whosoever occupies the PM house will maintain cordial relations with west and Washington without undermining national interests. This brings us to two options. In option one, following PML (N’s) resounding victory in Punjab (centre of country’s powerbase) Nawaz Sharif- with growing political power and enjoying the support of many Muslim capitals- could be the part of coalition with PPPP.

The price for his support will be restoration of judiciary, media freedom and restoration of civil and constitutional liberties. PPPP will have to be very careful as it enters the coalition with PML (N). PPPP will be looking forward to forming the Government as quickly as possible to avoid division within the party and to entrench itself with western support including Musharraf.

With his position in Punjab Nawaz has been placed in a unique position from where he will initiate two-pronged move. In the first part PPPP will be pushed to restore judiciary that from PML(N) perspective should initiate a domino effect that in either case will bring victory for Nawaz Sharif. In simpler words if PPPP refuses to restore independence of judiciary that according to Nawaz Sharif starts with restoration of some sixty judges of superior courts its political standing will be doomed beyond loss in immediate term.

In case PPPP decides to follow to uphold its end of bargain with Nawaz Sharif for his coalition support and restore ousted judges including Justice Iftikhar, Musharraf could be forced to dissolve the PPPP Government because the statement from presidency show that he is in no mood to resign or lose his powers to the PM and turn into a ceremonial president.

And if PPPP refuses to oblige Nawaz Sharif, he will be obliged to withdraw support for the PPPP that will push the country for an early election. It will allow Sharif brothers to return to power and with left-over APDM and Punjab on their side, it should be a walkover for PML (N) to corridors of power in the centre because in the next election there will be no sympathy vote for PPPP. In all probability with all the powers vested in the office of president Nawaz Sharif will like to be the country’s next president.

In second option, with all the chances of likely PML (N) Government in Punjab, the anti-PPPP establishment will like to support Nawaz Sharif because if PML (N) forms Government in the centre judges will return, decisions will be taken and there will be no need of any dissolution option. In this case a lot depends on what choices PPPP leadership makes in terms of fielding its PM candidate.

It will make or break the party. In all probability Yousaf Raza Gillani will be a better choice if viewed from wider perspective because avoiding another splinter group is equally important for the party leadership.

PML (N) however has its own set of challenges. A lot depends on PML(Q). In all fairness if PML(Q) joins PML(N), PPPP will be left out of the race. Nawaz Sharif has offered open door policy to the PML(Q) and Senator Tariq Azeem has not opposed the idea. Keeping in view the checkered history of PPPP- establishment relationship, Establishment will support PML(N).

I will not be surprised if PPPP fails to gather required numbers to form the Government It could well be the second surprise for the observers of this historic election.●