Himalayan Glaciers: Likely To Survive 50 Years
Pakistan Times Special Report

HIMALAYAN glaciers are retreating fast and could disappear within the next 50 years, experts warned Monday at a conference in Nepal's capital looking at the regional effects of global warming.

The melting ice fields have also caused a dramatic increase in the number and size of glacial lakes that now risk bursting and devastating mountain communities, delegates at the conference said.

"If temperatures continue to rise as it is, then there will be no snow and ice in the Himalayas in 50 years time," said Surendra Shrestha, the regional director for the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).

Glaciers in the Himalayas, a 2,400-kilometre (1,500-mile) range that sweeps through Pakistan, India, China, Nepal and Bhutan, provide headwaters for Asia's nine largest rivers, a lifeline for the 1.3 billion people who live downstream.

But temperatures in the region have been increasing by between 0.15 and 0.6 degrees Celsius (0.27 and 1.08 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade for the last 30 years.

In Nepal, the Imja Glacier just south of Mount Everest has been retreating at a rate of about 70 metres (230 feet) per year, with the water forming huge glacial lakes.

"There are studies showing that the surfaces of some of these lakes have increased by 150 to 200 percent and there is a danger that these lakes will burst," said Andreas Schild, the director general of the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, the host of Monday's conference.

In the 1950s about 12 glacial lakes were recorded in Nepal.

"When the inventory was done in 2000 there were 2,400 lakes in Nepal. Out of these, lakes that are about to burst are about 14," the UN's Shrestha told reporters.

"If we were to have a very small earthquake, all that water is going to come down. Because of the altitude, as it comes down it will pick up debris and speed, it's like a big bulldozer that wipes everything out," said Shrestha.

The effects of global warming are already clear to Nepal's top mountaineering official.

"Weather conditions have become increasingly unpredictable in the mountains," Ang Tsering Sherpa, the president of Nepal's mountaineering association said.

Home to Mount Everest and seven other peaks over 8,000 metres (26,400 feet), Nepal attracts thousands of mountaineers and trekkers annually.

"Ten years ago, autumn was seen as the best time to summit Everest, but now the spring season has become the best time. This must be an impact of global warming," said Sherpa.

Shrestha, the UN environment official, said that the rising temperatures worldwide could be halted, but only with a huge effort.

"If India, China and Brazil and other emerging powers do voluntary (carbon dioxide) reductions tied to technology and assistance, it is possible that they can continue to develop and reduce their (carbon dioxide) emissions," the UN environment official said.●