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THE world will never be the same again — in the wake of annihilation of two cities of Japan and disappearance of two towers of the USA. For the latter, two areas are in fire: one is Afghanistan and the second is non-Afghanistan.

The borders where the boundaries of Afghanistan end thereafter start the limits of non-Afghanistan in all its four dimensions — including Guantanamo Bay. Hence, if an Afghani is in Afghanistan or in the Bay, there is hardly any difference — as the sense of humiliation is similar. The spirit of the ‘non-Geneva Convention’ is in its full furry. For that matter, an Afghani will never forget two years. One was the year 1991 when a former superpower stepped out from it, and the second was the year 2001 when the remaining superpower stepped in.

The decade of 1991-2001 was full of turbulence and upheavals. The Afghan warlords denied two famous accords: the Peshawar Accord and the Islamabad Accord. Around both the accords, two immediate neighbours, Pakistan and Iran, were also actively involved. Either was vigilant to watch one’s interests — to win over other. The accords failed and Afghans with new brand name of Taliban came to the forefront mostly from madrasshas of the two provinces of Pakistan: NWFP and Baluchistan. The same is the fall out on the recent elections of Pakistan. In both the provinces, a right-wing Islamist party, MMA, won overwhelmingly. They are considered only second to Taliban — their lost brothers.

An offensive has been launched in the Southern area of Afghanistan by the US forces from its East to West direction while by the Pakistani forces, from its West to East direction. Both have to find Osama in and around the tribal belt so that forthcoming elections could be held peacefully in Afghanistan as well as plausibly in the USA — the immediate concerns — one after another. However, both of the forces have also to find another companion of Osama. He is no one else but Mullah Omar.

Mullah Omar bears two-pronged significance. One, he was the head of the Taliban (student militia). Second, he is a Pushtoon. The Pushtoon overwhelm Afghanistan by about 43% in population. Tajiks who comprise about 23% second them. The rest stand below 10% individually. In the new interim set up, the majority has been sidelined forcefully while the minority is in the throne compellingly. The existing Transitional Afghan Authority has so far failed desperately to introduce peace and provide security to common Afghans in non-Kabul areas, both cities and rural, rather it is itself dependent on foreign forces and guards for its physical survival — even after the lapse of two long years.

In Afghanistan, an Afghan mind set-up comes first. Then comes an interim set-up followed by a political set-up. To pollute an interim and the resultant political set-up by one’s interests or by overlooking Afghan’s interests means failure of any such effort, sooner or later. Elections are arranged for a workable political system that emanates from a credible political process. However, where a non-majority interim set-up is in place to hold future elections depending on due participation of the expected registered voters, both workability and credibility will hinge on appropriate Pushtoon representation, participation, and voting. Germany is in the headlines to create such a political environment — by calling meetings one after another. She, as a convener, still needs to evaluate the reasons of failure of the two accords convened by Pakistan, if she wants to earn some name.

‘Sky is the limit’ for those who believe to go up. ‘Legitimacy is the criteria’ for those who believe to go around. Against all canons of law, the alleged have been kept in the Guantanamo Bay to achieve something. However, no solid information has come out from there. More than 500 Al-Qaeda members were handed over by Pakistan while more than 500 US army personnel have lost their lives in Iraq. The gain is less significant than the irreversible loss. Additionally, the detainees in the Bay, so-called Al-Qaeda members are now irrefutable enemy ever than before!

Shoulders of both the key players of the alliance, the USA and the UK, are under heavy responsibility for what their respective leaders uttered for going into wars first in Afghanistan and then in Iraq — ‘shoulder-to-shoulder’. Attack on Afghanistan got the UN umbrella but unfortunately not for Iraq. The recent terror in Spain — irrespective of the culprit — is enough to terrify common people. To afflict atrocities on a non-homeland is one thing but to see results of atrocities on one’s homeland is another thing. The latter requires a lot of brave heart. Similarly, to support one country to carry on inhuman acts on armless inhabitants of Gaza Strip is one thing but to see the backlash of the same on streets of Jerusalem is another thing. Both Gaza Strip and West Bank are as important today as these were in 1917 during Balfour Declaration. Time comes and passes on but a reality persists — rather stares straight in the face.

History records lessons for the next generations as to what should be done in what scenario. With this reference, to make an alliance was one thing but to maintain the stature is another. Spain has just condemned the decision to go into Iraq — without the UN mandate. The message is ‘no one wants to lay down one’s life for an illegitimate cause’ — a cause where pre-war reasoning and post-war justification stand wide apart. Illegitimate actions bring morale of the soldiers down to wipe out courage and forbearance. Illegitimacy of one provides room to legitimacy of another.

The cries of Anglo-American intelligence agencies can be heard on entry of both Arabs and non-Arabs from the neighbourhood of Iraq. However, both American people and non-American people are not going to accept this excuse of the agencies, as it was not evaluated as ‘a risk factor’ before engaging both the USA and the UK forces in Iraq. That is why, in the USA, families of the deceased army men have been agitating and have started demanding pulling out of the US forces from Iraq. Hence, the famous rhetoric ‘if you want to lay down your lives, it is up to you’ has become applicable to both the engaged parties — the invader and the invaded.

From the result of the on-going offensive in Afghanistan, if both Mullah Omar and Osama are not found or found dead, it would be a better situation than to find them alive. In the latter case, if they have to appear in an international court, it would again be a better situation than make them to visit the Bay. In fact, both of them have gained ‘symbolic significance’ in one’s respective region and people of influence.

For that matter, had they been found, dead or alive, immediately after the 9/11 event, the situation could have been different. Now, their followers see their disappearance as a sign of victory. However, any sign of such loss may turn the situation topsy-turvy. For Pakistan, the choice will be hard. That is, internal turmoil, expectedly. While for the USA, the choice will be harsh. That is, to go in its State election in November without Karzai’s government in power (with or without election) and with severe unrest in Iraq, probably. Moreover, the Anglo-American alliance will have to forestall transformation of Iraq — a part of non-Afghanistan — to the Bay for its forces, as gain of one is loss of another.

The writer is a Lahore based, medical doctor and a freelance writer. He is a regular contributor to 'Pakistan Times.'
E-Mail: qaisarrashid@yahoo.com
© 2004 Dr Qaisar Rashid