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ASHGABAT (Turkmenistan): Conversation with 847 persons in 6 countries of the greater Central Asian region shows that a vast majority of the people already considers the United States a superpower on the decline.

A curious mixture of wishful thinking and introspective worldview is shaping the people’s ideas into a mould that leaves no space for American presence in the region and that would be extremely difficult to break once it sets in place firmly. Peculiar environment and certain restrictions in the Central Asia make it difficult to carryout a yes/no kind of survey. However, we consider that relaxed conversation is definitely better than a structured survey to find out the real opinion of the real people in this part of the world.

Speaking to a wide range of population in Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Afghanistan, we found that people are hardening in their anti-American feelings and would be more than willing to lend a helping hand to hasten American departure from the region. They also mistrust Americans for a number of reasons, not the least of which is their perception that the USA is a waging a war against Islam in the guise of war against terrorism.

It was also evident that the majority of the respondents would feel rather elated if the United States loses in Iraq and Afghanistan. People are deeply interested in what is happening in Iraq and they draw their own conclusions from what they see on the television. Most people watch ORT and RTR, two of the channels that are universally available in the entire CIS region. More than 89% persons (754) we talked to said they watch the news programmes regularly. What they see on the TV they discuss with each other and what they discuss with each other gives them more reasons to add more weight to their own opinions. Like most people the world over, the Central Asians usually form opinions based on their own biases and then start collecting evidence to support their opinions.

The recent change in the mindset is that people have started believing that the Unites States is ‘beatable.’ Because of TV and Internet, everyone learns immediately about the situation in Iraq and Afghanistan. Because of limitations of language, people turn to Russian language media, including the websites in Russian language that are most vocal about any losses suffered by the US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. "They were partying when we lost in Afghanistan. I am glad they went to Iraq. Serves them right!” shouted Zoya (for obvious reasons we are not going to use real names of our respondents) in Almaty, Kazakhstan. She is 43 and works as deputy head of a maternity home.

Osmanbek in Karshi, Uzbekistan, was less jubilant and more thoughtful at the difficulties faced by American forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. He is 48 and has served in Russo-Afghan war as a Major in the Red army. “War is bad, no matter how you try to justify it. I don’t know what kind of leaders would send their children to get killed in a war just to grab the oil that belongs to someone else. I hope they start making right decisions before it is too late,” said Osmanbek.

Mehrunnisa, a schoolteacher in Herat, Afghanistan, sees some divine scheme in the latest developments. “It is probably God’s way to rotate supremacy among the nations. I am inclined to think that God has decided to deprive them [the USA] of their superpower status and that is why He sent them to Iraq and Afghanistan where they would bleed out slowly until they come to their senses and go back home, able to do no more harm to other countries,” she said.

Peotr, 19, loves jeans, sneakers and pizza. He is a big fan of Britney Spears and Rap. However, when it comes to politics, his loves for things American fades away quickly. “Boys my age and younger are dying in Iraq. I am not happy about that, but I would surely cheer if they are defeated in Iraq,” said Mikhail, sporting an imitation Ray Ban outside his father’s dacha near Samarkand.

“The spell is broken,” said Imanli in Turkmenbashy city of Turkmenistan. “For a long time the world was under the impression that the Americans are invincible but now we know that they are not. Also, they are out of touch with reality.” Imanli is a civil servant and watches news on five Russian channels.

We found during our chat with people in the region that almost all respondents (788, fully 93%) consider the breakup of the Soviet Union a big personal loss. They hold the USA responsible for the breakup of a country that gave them great freedom of movement over 25% territory of the surface of earth and that guaranteed them a living standard that still remains unmatched in most of the former fragments of the Soviet Union.

“Why should I support Americans? They destroyed our way of life and now they are after our resources,” thundered a distinguished looking Oleg. A radiologist by profession, he drives a beaten Volga as a gypsy cab to eke out a living in economically turbulent Uzbekistan.

Oleg was not alone in blaming the Americans for his personal woes. Most people over 30 in almost all the countries of the central Asian region that we covered consider the United States responsible for their miseries.

Dislike of Americans is not confined to those who don’t come in touch with Americans on day-to-day basis. Even the sex workers, one of the few groups who are benefiting directly from American presence in the region and who interact rather closely with them, find it difficult to ‘love the hand that feeds them.’

Lena, a sex worker from Tajikistan who goes to Kyrgyzstan regularly for ‘business’, was almost in tears when she said, “Yes, I am a whore but why rub it in. Do you think I am happy selling my body? I feel dirty every time an American soldier picks me. The way they look at me, the way they speak to me, the way they treat me, makes me hate myself.”

Young people with school going children were more vocal in their dislike of Americans, and consequently, more eager to see Americans leave the region. They are the ones who have fallen through cracks in larger numbers than any other group of the society.

“It was they [the Americans] who aided those treacherous Mujaheddin and broke our country into so many pieces. If someone tells me a way to kick them out of central Asia, I would happily do it,” said Jalolsha in Dushanbe. He is 34 and belongs to that ‘in between’ generation that had just completed education and started out in a good job when the Soviet Union began falling apart. Most young men from his age group are just hopping from one temporary job to the other in search of some anchor, some permanence, that remains elusive even after 12 years of independence.

While people loathe America, they love Europe.

All 847 of the respondents – 100% of the survey group – had to say something favourable about Europe and Europeans. It is difficult to ascribe any single reason to this behaviour. Probably it is a blend of the facts that during the soviet period United States was the single identifiable enemy; during the Russo-Afghan war USA was seen as the main catalyst for defeat of the Red army; after the breakup of Soviet Union America has come out into the region with unmatched arrogance and thrust; and people perceive that the United States is complicating their miseries by supporting corrupt regimes in the region.

Whatever the reason, the fact remains that people would accept Europe with open arms while Americans may find it very difficult to convince them of their sincerity. “Europeans definitely have a better chance in Central Asia,” said Dr. Talgat. “It is difficult to put your finger on the difference but somehow Europeans appear to be willing to deal with us on the basis of equality. Unlike Americans, they don’t seem to be talking from a mile high pedestal.” Talgat is a professor of history in a university in Kazakhstan.

Despite trying to find plausible reasons for difference in attitude toward Americans and Europeans, we could not distill a coherent explanation out of the hundreds of answers we got. However, TACIS may be one of the reasons why central Asians find it easy to trust Europeans. Surely, not THE reason, but one of the reasons. TACIS has the knack of blending in the background while helping the local population, whereas the trait eludes American Peace Corps and USAID. PC and USAID affect big presence and achieve little while TACIS shows very small presence but does a lot. This could be one of the reasons why people instinctively trust Europe but distrust America although we don’t have anything to back this assumption.

People would like to see the Americans leave the region – the sooner the better – and they trust Europeans while they detest Americans but there is more to their thought process than that. Russia looms large in the hearts and minds of the people. There are reasons for that. Every major city in the Central Asian region has a sizable populations of ethnic Russians, many of whom are living for decades amicably with their neighbours. From their firsthand experience people know that Russians are good.

The language is another factor. When people go to Russia they don’t feel like strangers, as they would on the streets of New York or Chicago. They speak the same language and many of them have studied there and served there during soviet times. Another factor, noticeable only recently, is that Putin knows how to make the right noises while Bush seems to alienate the central Asian people with each of his speeches. Even the four letter words Putin occasionally injects in his outbursts somehow make him more real and more honest to the people. “We know Russians, we know how to live with them and how to deal with them. Give me Russians any old day, just take away Americans from me,” said Chinara, a retired librarian in Tashkent. Russia has a secure place in what it considers its ‘exclusive zone of influence.’

Iran, very much a part of central Asia, presents another wall of antagonism against Americans. “They will get better treatment here than what they are getting in Iraq or Afghanistan. Let them [the Americans] come here. We are waiting for them,” said Hameed sarcastically. He runs a bookshop in Tehran. Hameed may well have spoken for all the Iranians we talked to. Without any exception, all Iranians showed strong resolve to repel Americans should they venture into Iran as aggressors.

With each passing day, options for the United States are diminishing in the Central Asian region. Muslims, the majority segment of the population, have come to see the war against terrorism as war against Islam. “North Korea has got nuclear weapons while Iraq had nothing. Why did they go after Iraq and not North Korea? Is it because of oil or is it because of religion?” asked angrily a senior journalist in Tashkent.

Failure of the American government to censure General Boykin on his remarks that the Christians were fighting a religious war against a guy called Satan that the Muslims worship, has added fuel to the fire.

In all the six countries, wherever we spoke to the people, everyone condemned Boykin’s remarks and appeared quite convinced that the United States was indeed waging a war against Islam. “If one of their top generals says that he is fighting a religious war against Muslims and their vice president says that he is sorry that God saw it fit to put oil under the Islamic countries, what do you expect me to think about their intentions?” asked Zamir, a TV commentator in Dushanbe.

With extreme antagonism against the US presence in the region, deep mistrust of American designs, widespread perception that the US is waging a war against Islam, majority of the people believing that Americans are after the oil and nothing else, and support of corrupt regimes that are oblivious of the suffering of the masses, the United States is hardly left with any viable options in the Central Asian region.

Tomorrow may be another day, but who knows.